Zoo Station

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My picks for the Final Four

Posted by Chance on March 19, 2009

ESPN bracket Final Four:

Pitt,  UNC, Wake Forest, Memphis

I have UNC beating Wake Forest

Upsets:

Mississippi State (13) beating Washington (4) in the first round.

Arizona (12) beating Utah (5) in the first round.

Western Kentucky (12 – see mascot below) beating Illinois (5).

What is this thing?

I wish I had educated reasons for picking who I did, but I don’t.  In general, however, picking a #1 seed or #2 seed to win it all is usually a safe bet.  A #3 seed is a safe bet if they have Carmelo Anthony playing for them.  My strategy for the past 3 years has been to pick the Final Four first, then precede from there.  This will work only if the scoring doubles each round (1 pt per game first round, 2 pt second round, 4 pt third round, 8, 16).

As far as picking upsets, usually at least 1 12-seed will beat a 5-seed (for those not familiar with brackets, the seed is the number by each team in the bracket, 1 is the best, 16 is the worst), the only question is which one.  Don’t bother picking a 16-seed or 15-seed winning in the first round, a 16-seed has never won, 15-seeds only 4 times in the history of the 64-team tournament; sure it could happen, but it is very rare, and unless your bracket gives special points for upsets, first round games are not worth that much.

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